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Was a defined, representative sample of patients assembled at a common (usually early) point in the course of their disease? |
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Was patient follow-up sufficiently long and complete? |
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Were objective outcome criteria applied in a “blind” fashion? |
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If subgroups with different prognoses are identified, was there adjustment for important prognostic factors? |
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Was there validation in an independent group (“test set”) of patients? |
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Are the valid results of this prognosis study important?
How likely are the outcomes over time?
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How precise are the prognostic estimates? |
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If you want to calculate a confidence interval around the measure of prognosis:
Clinical Measure |
Standard Error (SE) |
Typical Calculation of CI |
Proportion (as in the rate of some prognostic event, etc.) where:
the number of patients = n
the proportion of these patients who experience the event = p |
where p is proportion and n is number of patients |
If p = 24/60 = 0.4 (or 40%) and n = 60
SE = = 0.063 (or 6.3%)
95% CI is 40% ± 1.96 × 6.3% or 27.6% to 52.4% |
n from your evidence: ___p from your evidence: ___ |
Your calculation:SE: ____________95% CI: ________ |
Can you apply this valid, important evidence about prognosis in caring for your patient?
Were the study patients similar to your own? |
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Will this evidence make a clinically important impact on your conclusions about what to offer or tell your patient? |